 |
|
||||||||||
Fix your
|
1. What is the Millennium Bug?The Millennium Bug, also referred to as the Y2K problem, is the name given to the problem caused by the expected failure of computer technology to effectively handle the transition between December 31,1999 and January 1, 2000. "Every major company has a potential problem caused by computer hardware and software using two digits to identify the year instead of four, i.e. 1996 is, in many cases, input, stored, sorted, and calculated as "96". Similarly, the year 2000 will be treated as "00", causing operations involving sorting, comparing, indexing and computations to encounter errors that can either "crash" your system, cause applications to operate incorrectly, or worse, slowly corrupt data over time, without being noticed until a problem arises." According to the Gartner group, 90% of applications will be affected by the Date 2000 problem, and systems will crash, if the century problem is not corrected before 1999. "The year 2000 date-change project presents organizations with one of the most interesting challenges since the dawn of the computer age. It is potentially the largest project the IT department have ever attempted. It has life-threatening implications for the business. It has an absolute, immovable deadline. It is a significant, unplanned, out-of-budget expense and it has no sponsor." [James A. Jones, Director of Year 2000 Group, Information Management Forum, in CIO Magazine, Sept.15, 1996] "The alternative to addressing the year 2000 will be going out of business." [Kevin Schick, The Gartner Group] 2. What areas of my office and factory are likely to be effected by the Y2K problem?In essence the millennium bug could effect any
piece of machinery that relies on a microchip. At the very minimum you will need to look
at the following areas:
3. It only effects big business and mainframes. How could it possibly effect me?It can effect anyone, anywhere in the world who has anything to do, passively or actively, with computer technology. The effect can be as insignificant as a power outage all the way through to a lack of food on the shelf on the local supermarket. The level of inconvenience one will feel is directly related to how much attention and care is given to fixing the problem prior to the critical date. 4. Won't someone else fix it?The only person who can fix it is you. You MUST take responsibility. Long gone are the days where we can waste time to point blame for the problem. The reality is that everyone must take responsibility for fixing, patching or rectifying the technology so that the byte of the millennium bug can be minimized. 5. I set the date to beyond 2000 and nothing happened.Simply setting the date and time on your PC can cause a great deal of damage to files and data, especially if the dates are changed whilst applications are open. In short, NEVER test an IBM compatible PC by simply changing the dates in DOS or Windows. It is important to understand that IBM compatible PCs actually have three critical clocks built into them. By only using software to set and test the dates you are ignoring the other two clocks. These can only be accessed and tested by specially designed and engineered Y2K software. 6. My computer is brand new.Unfortunately, having a brand new computer on your desk is no guarantee to Y2K compliance. The problem lies in the time delay between developing the product; it's arrival on the sales shelf and how long it has been sitting there before you purchased it. In many cases the technology of your brand new computer was built prior to the world becoming concerned with Y2K issues. The only way to ensure Y2K compliance is to individually test every IBM compatible PC with a Y2K testing utility. 7. We'll just dump our computers and buy new ones.Sorry - there is going to be a massive shortage of IBM compatible motherboards and RAM over the next few years. At current production levels, if every new motherboard used was replaced due to the Year 2000 problem, only an estimated 14% of the World's computers could be upgraded. In short - there is no way the world can "dump" what it's got and upgrade. There simply are not enough products available. In addition to this you have to consider the cost of the upgrade, the time it takes to fit a new motherboard, time to install the Operating System, the cost of the new Operating System, plus the cost of licensing upgrades for every bit of software on every hard disk. 8. We'll just test 1 in 100 PC's - the rest will be the same.WRONG - You MUST test each and every IBM compatible PC. There is no such thing as a standard motherboard. Each BIOS must be tested individually to ascertain if it's Year 2000 compliant. If you open 20 new computers - all from the same manufacturer, from the same production line, on the same day - you can have 4 or 5 different configurations, even if these computers all have the same badge on the front. The fact is that there are literally millions of combinations of BIOS, Hardware and Software and no two are identical. For instance, if you find a BIOS needs to be upgraded, then you MUST get the correct BIOS upgrade. Each BIOS has an individual BIOS ID string. If you apply the incorrect BIOS upgrade to the wrong computer, you will make that motherboard inoperable. 9. We acted early, our small company is now compliant. It won't affect us.Congratulations. You are one of the less than 10% of companies claiming compliance. Your biggest problem now is to ensure that your primary suppliers and customers are also Y2K compliant. Unfortunately, if they aren't and they fail, you will become part of the food chain as non-compliant companies collapse post Y2K. 10. I'll just upgrade my software.It is important to realize that the millennium bug is actually going to have three bites at any IBM compatible PC. Before upgrading to compliant software, you must check that the following components are Y2K compliant:
Once you have tested and made sure the above components are Y2K compliant then you can upgrade your software. There is not much point in upgrading your software if your hardware and operating system are set to fail. 11. We'll just migrate to Windows 98.You must consider the hardware implications - there is little point in installing a brand new operating system in a computer that has basic technical flaws. Certainly upgrade to Windows 98, although before you do, it might pay to check the system requirements for that operating system. According to information released by Microsoft, Windows 98 will require a 133mhz processor with 16mb of RAM just to install. Beta testing in sites throughout the world indicate that to attain any level of satisfactory performance from this operating system, you will need at least 233mhz with 64mb of RAM. 12. Isn't it just a technical problem?It is a technical problem however the ramifications of the Y2K problem are far more widespread than merely affecting small business owners, system administrators and home computer operators. According to current estimates, the cost of the Y2K problem may reach as high as one trillion dollars globally (excluding lawsuits). In many cases the cost to rectify the Y2K problem within a corporation will exceed any foreseeable budgeted item. It therefore becomes a management problem where management must take the responsibility for assessing and minimizing the impact of the expense, time and inconvenience caused by the millennium bug. 13. My PC has failed all tests and is too expensive to upgrade. Do I have to throw it away?NO. If your PC is not used for any date critical applications there is a good chance that you will be able to successfully use the PC in the Year 2000 and beyond. 14. Are the planes really going to drop out of the sky?No. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Y2K including nuclear power plants exploding, black hawk helicopters accidentally firing missiles just to name a few. Fortunately for us, most of the grandstanding is just that. Realistic problems that can occur are more of an inconvenience to our lives, which are, for better or worse governed by technology. Realistic problems, if not fixed in time, can include fluctuations in basic services, electricity outages, control systems in water and sewage plants failing, a roller coaster ride for the share market and financial indexes. Areas of high risk are the banking, financial and corporate sectors whom rely heavily on computers to process information. Y2K problems currently being experienced include technological misunderstanding of dates, issuing of incorrect information based on dates, and difficulties in forward planning exercises involving the Year 2000 and beyond. You could also expect to have problems with products/machines that use date dependant embedded microchips such as your photocopier, telephone system, computerized manufacturing line to name a few. 15. I have planned to start our compliance program in July 1999.If a Company fails to attain Y2K compliance because of the late action, the Directors of that company may be held legally responsible and become personally liable for their failure to perform their fiduciary duty of care. "WHEN a Year 2000 compliance program is instituted also raises important legal issues. ...Industry technology consultants have adopted December 31, 1998 as the actual year 2000 deadline for instituting a safeguarded compliance program. This deadline is designed to set aside one full year to test the system for any bugs which may still be lurking as a result of the plethora of changes. Thus, to be 100% compliant when January 1, 2000 rolls around; a year of testing is almost a necessity. This date, if accepted as an industry standard, may be used by lawyers as a cutoff for assessing whether the duty of due care was breached." 16. What is the rush? It is still two years away.The IT Industry is notorious for never finishing IT projects on time or on budget. The rush for compliance is to insure that all Computer systems and equipment reliant on embedded microchip technology is Y2K compliant by December 31, 1998. This will give a safety factor of 12 months should any other unforeseeable issue arise between now and the Year 2000. 17. Who is forcing the software and hardware manufacturers to be compliant?The marketplace is now demanding Y2K compliant hardware and software. Unfortunately, the temerity of both hardware and software developers has caused extreme delays in the production of Y2K compliant products. The simple truth of the matter is that no manufacturer really wants to be stuck with stock. So before they give you what you want, they will be trying to clear what they already have. By the same token, some manufacturers are providing free Y2K compliant upgrades to install. In essence, Buyer Beware... especially of 'Clearance Sales'. 18. How much is Y2K expected to cost me?On an individual level, the Y2K problem could cost you nothing or it could cost you your business and everything you have worked for. Basically it all comes back to testing every single computer, analyzing what the computer is used for, then arranging upgrades, updates or repairs to suit. On a global basis, the latest research indicates the problem will cost more than one trillion dollars and that the ensuring legal battles post year 2000 may cost 10 times the repair bill. 19. How can I tell how big the problem is in my company?"I have one client with a US$700 million (revenue) business. Last I looked, they were just at the entry point to the Fortune 500 in revenue size. Their technical staff is 25. They are EXCEEDINGLY well organized. Unlike virtually all other organizations of any size, they are at least starting from a firm baseline and know precisely where their systems are. Their first estimate was 10 man-years of effort. Their second estimate (based on more detailed knowledge) came out at 15 man-years! That's 60% of their staff for a solid year if all other work is put on hold. And they're not real comfortable with their estimates on what it's going to take to test their work." Unfortunately, the only way you will know how big the Year 2000 problem presents for your company is to test each and every computer for compliance. After that you will need to identify products/machinery that use date dependant microchip. Classic examples are telephone systems, facsimiles, photocopiers, security systems, air-conditioning, heavy machinery, motor vehicles, heavy and light transport. 20. Some "interesting" comments on the Y2K problem made by Peter de Jager (World authority on Y2K issues).Peter de Jager comments on "How serious is the Year 2000 problem""This is the first time I'm going to state some views 'publicly.' I've been holding back, because the title 'Chicken Little' is hardly one that sits well with me... nor is it one that reporters accept as 'credible.' AND the media have been remiss in helping businesses understand this problem, instead of describing it in detail, they've been treating it as 'Scientist Predicts All Computers Will Explode in 2000!' Hardly worthwhile reading material for a CEO, CFO or the Chair of the Board. Take a look at the input screens of most accounting systems. These systems, typically legacy systems, the ones most likely to fail, control the true lifeblood of the organization... not INFORMATION! but something more mundane. Dollars. Most of these systems accept ONLY 2-digit years. Why? Possibly because MOST data entry into these systems is date information and typing those 2 extra digits, time after time after time would be boring, tedious, inefficient and generally a pain in the arm. Try entering 00 into one of these screens... you'll likely get... a data exception... or it won't accept the data as valid... or it will accept it... all of these will cause problems. The first two reject the data... that's good. The last is scary... will it process that 00 correctly? Based on my personal programming experience, I'll predict that 90% of accounting systems will either reject the data or fail. To me, that's more than a reasonable estimate. Assume I'm off by 100% ... that only 45% of Accounting systems die. Watch what happens.Okay... now it's 'whenever this happens' sometime between now and Day 1, Y2K. Most likely in 1999...Your accounting system is dead in the water. What are the implications? Well... The most simple consequence is you can't cut or pay an invoice. No money will come into or leave your organization... (assume payroll is working... otherwise things only get worse... faster) There are some organizations so literally computer dependant, they will NOT be able to get that cash flow moving EVEN if they hire 100 accounting clerks. What invoices do you pay? What do you bill? EVERYTHING is in the computer...The clock struck Jan 1, 2000 and the computer had a stroke. Other companies will be able to generate a trickle of billing and payments by hiring manual labor... (How many clerks could you hire tomorrow? By next week?) How FAST can you get an accounting system going? Can you fix the one you have? Or do you install a new one... Several of us, on this list have installed new accounting systems under pressure... how long did it take? 9 months? 6 Months?? 3 Months??? How fast can you install a new system when the entire company is a) screaming at you? and b) Blaming you? and c) the old system is dead and dead computers leave no audit trails. How stable will your project team be ... when the company down the street is in the same predicament and offers huge 'incentives' to your staff to jump ship and help them? Will you lose your best and brightest or will you lose the bottom of your hope? If you can't get your accounting system up and running in three months you're dead. Out of business, kaput ... Today's organizations CANNOT survive three months without cash flow. (and yes there WILL be a run on the banks as companies get desperate for cash advances NOW!) Okay ... assume you have the very best and the very brightest ... your system is up and running in a week. (Loud laughter from the back of the room... not appreciated... nevertheless, the speaker continues unperturbed) Remember that 45% failure rate? The VERY optimistic one? It means that 45% of the people you bill will not be able to pay. This is 100% out of your control ... 45% of your cash flow will be stopped even if your system is fine. Even if you have NO Y2K problems ... 45% of your clients do. So do 45% of your vendors ... can you order your raw materials if THEIR systems are dead? Oh, and remember that you've been pushing JIT inventory for years now ... your stock levels are deliberately low ... based on the assumption that the NEXT delivery is next week. Can you build a car with 45% of the parts? Can you ship a product when 45% of the distribution channel is 'troubled' by the Y2K problem? Can you sell your product to me... If I have a Y2K problem? As Ted Nelson said in ComputerLib "Everything is InterTwingled" Can you survive with 45% of your cash flow? Will your computing staff stay around with salaries going through the roof? Especially for those who have PROVEN conclusively they can write Y2K compliant code!!! How many companies need to fail...10% ? 25% ? 45%
? before a critical mass is achieved and it all comes tumbling down like a house of cards?
We are all inter-dependant upon each other... we might NOT pass 'data' back and forth...
BUT we DO pass invoices and other accounting and inventory information back and forth...
managed by systems totally dependent upon digit deficient data." Peter de Jager's comments on "What is the potential social/societal impact?""Many firms may have large numbers of computer tapes and files unexpectedly erased due to automated systems that haven't been told that time has reversed! Fallout from this is difficult to predict. Probably these same firms will try to hire more of those overpriced programmers. …A large depression could result from a large number of business failures. Now all of those overpriced programmers are back on the streets. This could be a VERY bad thing. Possible stock market crash??? Add to this the fact that supermarkets could have
utterly bare shelves on 4th Jan 2000 because of the BIGGEST PARTY - And the fact that
their ordering system might go haywire. They might even go the other way and order 99
years' worth of supplies, but nothing comes in, due to all of their suppliers' computers
being off-line." 21. Legal Implications for Directors."Each director and officer owes their corporation a fiduciary duty of care which requires that he or she exercise reasonable diligence in the performance of his or her obligations on behalf of the corporation. Failure to uphold this duty could result imposition of personal liability for harm to the corporation." Y2K compliance falls within those rules & guidelines giving shareholders the right of redress against directors if they fail to ensure the company is Y2K compliant and suffers accordingly. Compliance also includes obtaining certificates of compliance from all suppliers and customers. "Central to the duty of care is the duty of due inquiry. In other words, there is no protection from liability in being ignorant of the existence of a problem. The only "safe harbor" available to directors and officers is a demonstrable effort to determine the relevant facts and to implement (or cause implementation by others) of appropriate responses. Breach of this duty subjects the director or officer to personal liability for the damage done to the corporation (in the form of "derivative" lawsuits) for his or her failure to exercise due care." "The Year 2000 problem leaves directors and
officers extremely vulnerable because: (i) it involves a subject matter that is difficult
for many non-technical persons to comprehend or appreciate, (ii) it is often discounted as
a "systems" problem not worthy of higher consideration, (iii) the cost of
resolving the problem is "ugly money" in that it will result in no tangible
benefit, and (iv) failure to address the problem -- if it truly exists -- is likely to
result in tangible financial losses which may compel the filing of derivative lawsuits.
Many legal specialist predict that the Year 2000 problem could be the "stealth"
D&O problem of the 1990s. If insurance industry rumors are true, insurance carriers
may begin to exclude from D&O insurance cover age claims based on Y2K non-compliance.
Watch your insurance policies, and confirm your coverage." The USA legal profession deems the Y2K problem to be major coup for their future income, with projections of law suits costing billions of dollars. In the USA alone it is estimated that some 30% of businesses will FAIL due to Y2K non-compliance. The problem directors now face is the fact that time itself is running out. "WHEN a Year 2000 compliance program is instituted also raises important legal issues. ....Industry technology consultants have adopted December 31, 1998 as the actual year 2000 deadline for instituting a safeguarded compliance program. This deadline is designed to set aside one full year to test the system for any bugs which may still be lurking as a result of the plethora of changes. Thus, to be 100% compliant when January 1, 2000 rolls around, a year of testing is almost a necessity. This date, if accepted as an industry standard, may be used by lawyers as a cutoff for assessing whether the duty of due care was breached." January 1, 2000 is not negotiable and the reality is that you won't know how big the problem is until you begin your assessment.
|
||||||||||
    |
|||||||||||
�1999 Horizons. All rights reserved. |
|||||||||||
